Paraguay case spike 12/3/2022 due to reinfections

[CSSEGISandData]

Hello all,

As first raised in #6324, we have reported a large spike in cases on 12/3/2022 in Paraguay. As in #6313 for Czechia, the reason for the spike is that the headline confirmed cases total now includes reinfections rather than separating them as an independent entry. We have attempted to locate publicly accessible data in order to perform a back distribution.

The most promising avenue for finding historical data had been the weekly epidemiological reports available on the Ministry of Health website (example for week 48 of 2022). The reports can be produced by scrolling to the bottom of the linked site, selected "D.G.V.S" for "Seleccione institución", and then selecting the year ("año") and week ("semana") of interest. However, these reports only infrequently include the cumulative number of reinfections. A back distribution using this files would still maintain a large case spike (published to May 2022) as well as other spikes smaller in magnitude throughout the year (see image).

It is our assessment that maintaining this spike in a single location in the time series is more appropriate than this imperfect back distribution. As such, we will not be altering the historical data for Paraguay at this time.

Please let us know any comments or concerns.