Burkina Faso Anticipatory Action: drought

Background information

The pilot on Anticipatory Action in Burkina Faso is on seasonal drought. To determine the likelihood of such a drought, we make use of precipitation as meteorological indicator. More specifically we look at the probability of below-average precipitation according to the seasonal forecast by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The pilot covers four ADMIN1 regions, namely Boucle du Mouhoun, Nord, Centre-Nord, and Sahel.

Overview of analysis

This repository currently only contains analysis of IRI data in analyses and code to download this data and monitor the trigger in src.

More analyses were done, but these are in the old repository and should be ported over in the future.

The explanation below on analyses and data sources is copied from the old repository. The text under reproducing this analysis is specific for the repository you are currently looking at.

We first explored data on humanitarian risk and vulnerabilities to help define the geographic scope and shock for the pilot. This exploration is summarized in this document , the code for which can be found in docs/bfa_risk_overview.Rmd and drought_trigger/01_data_summary.R.

Thereafter we analyzed observed and forecasted precipitation patterns. This code can be found in the .md files in the drought_trigger/ directory.

Data description

The forecast source for the trigger is IRI's seasonal forecast. This forecast is issued on the 15th of each month and has 1 to 4 months leadtime. The data can be downloaded after the creation of an account.

To validate the forecast, we use observational precipitation data by CHIRPS. This data is publicly available and is updated every month.

We also make use of the administrative boundaries from the Common Operational Datasets (CODs) on HDX.

Reproducing this analysis

Create a directory where you would like the data to be stored, and point to it using an environment variable called AA_DATA_DIR.

Next create a new virtual environment and install the requirements with the commands below.

pip install -r requirements.txt

Install src as a package so that its contents can be used by the notebooks:

pip install -e .

To run the pipeline that downloads and processes the data, execute:

python src/main.py

To see runtime options, execute:

python src/main.py -h

To enable downloading of IRI data you need to create an account. See instructions here on how to do that.

Monitoring

To monitor the trigger, run:

python src/monitor_trigger.py

Development

All code is formatted according to black and flake8 guidelines. The repo is set-up to use pre-commit. Before you start developing in this repository, you will need to run

pre-commit install

The markdownlint hook will require Ruby to be installed on your computer.

You can run all hooks against all your files using

pre-commit run --all-files