From b3feb9597383fc68b9dba93b220f8087ba1c4436 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: weinbergerlab Date: Sun, 14 Jun 2020 15:51:24 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] web --- docs/index.html | 915 ++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------------ 1 file changed, 463 insertions(+), 452 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/index.html b/docs/index.html index 3da0598..2e264ab 100644 --- a/docs/index.html +++ b/docs/index.html @@ -2775,15 +2775,15 @@

Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States

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6/5/2020

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6/12/2020

Dan Weinberger,1 Jenny Chen,7 Ted Cohen,1 Forrest W. Crawford,2 Farzad Mostashari,3 Don Olson,4 Virginia E Pitzer,1 Nicholas G Reich,5 Marcus Russi,1 Lone Simonsen,6 Annie Watkins,1 Cecile Viboud7

1Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and the Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 2Department of Biostatistics and the Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT; Yale Departments of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Statistics & Data Science, Yale School of Management 3Aledade, Inc 4Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York City, NY 5Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 6Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Denmark 7Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD

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Mortality data on deaths due to pneumonia & influenza through the week ending 2020-05-23

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Mortality data on deaths due to pneumonia & influenza through the week ending 2020-05-30

Overview

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Overview

National all-cause excess

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Excess deaths for the United States from March 1, 2020 through May 23, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. The area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Excess deaths for the United States from March 1, 2020 through May 30, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. The area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Excess deaths in New York City and the rest of New York

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Excess deaths for New York state (excluding New York City) and for New York City from March 1, 2020 through May 23, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. The area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Excess deaths for New York state (excluding New York City) and for New York City from March 1, 2020 through May 30, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. The area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Excess deaths in four high-incidence states

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Excess deaths for four states that had large numbers of reported COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020 through May 23, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. Area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Excess deaths for four states that had large numbers of reported COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020 through May 30, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. Area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Excess deaths in select additional states

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Excess deaths for additional states from March 1, 2020 through May 23, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. Area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Excess deaths for additional states from March 1, 2020 through May 30, 2020. The observed number of deaths is indicated by the black solid line, and the expected number of deaths, adjusting for seasonality, influenza epidemics, and reporting delays, is indicated by the black dashed line. Area between these two lines represents the total number of excess deaths. The blue area represents deaths recorded as due to COVID-19, the red shaded area presents additional pneumonia and influenza excess deaths not coded as due to COVID-19, and the green shaded area represents deaths that were not attributed to COVID-19 or pneumonia or influenza.

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Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

@@ -2818,7 +2818,7 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

-Observed and Excess deaths due to COVID-19, pneumonia/influenza/Covid-19, and all-causes COVID-19, from March 1, 2020 through May 23, 2020 +Observed and Excess deaths due to COVID-19, pneumonia/influenza/Covid-19, and all-causes COVID-19, from March 1, 2020 through May 30, 2020 @@ -2851,22 +2851,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

US -722571 +780975 -603100 +658700 -119500 (114200,123900) +122300 (116800,127000) -88594 +95235 -87920 (86230,89350) +94130 (92350,95690) -36.4 (34.8,37.8) +37.3 (35.6,38.7) @@ -2874,22 +2874,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

NYC -36855 +38170 -12100 +13000 -24700 (24400,25000) +25100 (24800,25400) -18230 +18603 -17170 (16950,17330) +17500 (17280,17670) -294.2 (290.5,297.6) +299.1 (295.3,302.7) @@ -2897,22 +2897,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

NJ -31920 +34013 -16500 +17800 -15400 (15100,15800) +16200 (15800,16500) -11290 +11952 -11380 (11240,11500) +12060 (11910,12180) -173.7 (169.7,177.5) +182.3 (178.1,186.2) @@ -2920,22 +2920,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

NY -34601 +36871 -22800 +24600 -11800 (11400,12200) +12300 (11900,12700) -9387 +9773 -8880 (8710,9030) +9220 (9040,9380) -107.2 (103.3,110.7) +111.4 (107.4,114.9) @@ -2943,183 +2943,183 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

MA -20700 +22146 -13600 +14700 -7100 (6800,7400) +7400 (7100,7700) -6171 +6627 -5980 (5870,6090) +6400 (6280,6510) -103.6 (99,107.8) +107.6 (103,112.2) -LA +DC -12192 +1950 -9000 +1400 -3200 (2900,3400) +500 (400,600) -2145 +400 -2170 (2100,2230) +390 (350,420) -68.4 (62.9,73.5) +73.5 (58.9,86.6) -DC +LA -1742 +13256 -1300 +10200 -500 (400,500) +3000 (2700,3300) -325 +2310 -320 (290,350) +2340 (2270,2400) -63.9 (50,76.7) +64.7 (59.1,70.3) -MI +MD -27976 +16092 -21700 +12300 -6200 (5800,6600) +3700 (3500,4000) -4611 +2651 -4550 (4430,4670) +2650 (2560,2740) -62.4 (58.2,66.2) +62 (57.2,66.8) -DE +MI -2295 +30044 -1700 +23900 -600 (500,700) +6100 (5700,6600) -331 +4839 -330 (300,360) +4740 (4620,4870) -60.5 (49.9,71.1) +61.4 (56.7,65.6) -MD +IL -14730 +33296 -11400 +25800 -3300 (3000,3600) +7500 (7100,7900) -2328 +4911 -2340 (2250,2420) +4920 (4800,5050) -55 (50.4,59.6) +59.2 (55.7,62.3) -IL +RI -30508 +2881 -23900 +2300 -6600 (6200,7000) +500 (400,700) -4299 +586 -4360 (4250,4480) +550 (510,580) -52.3 (49.1,55.4) +51.7 (39.3,62.9) -RI +DE -2578 +2537 2100 -400 (300,500) +400 (300,600) -506 +365 -480 (440,510) +370 (330,400) -40.7 (29,51.1) +45.3 (32.6,57.5) @@ -3127,22 +3127,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

PA -34463 +37258 -29800 +31800 -4700 (4200,5100) +5400 (4900,5900) -5473 +5840 -5290 (5160,5410) +5610 (5480,5730) -36.5 (33,40) +42.4 (38.5,45.9) @@ -3150,252 +3150,252 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

MS -8067 +8787 -7000 +7600 -1100 (900,1300) +1100 (900,1400) -573 +677 -610 (540,670) +710 (640,780) -36.3 (29.3,43.4) +38.3 (30.6,45.9) -IN +CO -16982 +11804 -14700 +9900 -2300 (2000,2600) +1900 (1600,2100) -1866 +1354 -1860 (1770,1950) +1330 (1260,1410) -34.6 (29.8,39) +32.4 (27.6,37) -CO +IN -10956 +18336 -9200 +16200 -1700 (1500,2000) +2100 (1800,2500) -1278 +2012 -1260 (1190,1330) +1990 (1900,2080) -30.4 (25.8,34.8) +31.9 (26.7,36.7) -SC +VT -12563 +1580 -11100 +1400 -1500 (1200,1800) +200 (100,300) -461 +48 -420 (350,490) +10 (-20,40) -28.9 (23.2,34.2) +29.8 (13.6,44.9) -VA +SC -17776 +13601 -15500 +12200 -2300 (2000,2600) +1400 (1100,1700) -1302 +528 -1240 (1160,1320) +480 (400,550) -27 (23.2,30.9) +27.9 (21.8,33.6) -VT +VA -1431 +19219 -1300 +16900 -200 (100,200) +2300 (1900,2600) -47 +1471 -20 (-10,50) +1400 (1310,1480) -24.2 (9.5,38.3) +26.7 (22.8,30.6) -GA +AZ -20187 +16929 -17700 +15200 -2500 (2100,2800) +1800 (1400,2100) -1535 +846 -1650 (1560,1730) +930 (840,1010) -23.2 (19.8,26.4) +24 (19.6,28.5) -AZ +GA -15586 +22105 -13900 +19900 -1600 (1300,1900) +2200 (1800,2600) -724 +1686 -810 (730,890) +1800 (1710,1880) -22.5 (18.2,26.7) +21 (17.2,24.4) -AL +NH -12329 +3383 -11300 +3100 -1000 (700,1300) +300 (100,400) -594 +244 -700 (630,760) +240 (200,280) -20 (14.4,25.6) +19.9 (7.9,30) -NH +AL -3131 +13436 -2900 +12500 -300 (100,400) +900 (600,1200) -206 +672 -200 (160,240) +790 (720,860) -18.8 (8.7,29.1) +18 (12,24.1) -MO +WA -14749 +15367 -13700 +14000 -1000 (700,1300) +1300 (1000,1700) -654 +1021 -750 (670,820) +1010 (930,1090) -17 (11.7,21.7) +17.5 (13.4,21.7) @@ -3403,22 +3403,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

CA -66903 +72407 -60600 +65600 -6300 (5600,6900) +6800 (6100,7500) -3601 +4046 -3720 (3540,3900) +4130 (3940,4330) -15.9 (14.2,17.5) +17.2 (15.5,19) @@ -3426,114 +3426,114 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

FL -52295 +56462 -48900 +52900 -3400 (2800,4000) +3500 (2900,4100) -2227 +2457 -2700 (2550,2840) +2940 (2780,3080) -15.9 (13.1,18.6) +16.4 (13.4,19.3) -OH +MN -27929 +12112 -26100 +11200 -1800 (1400,2200) +900 (600,1200) -1611 +1020 -1660 (1560,1760) +980 (910,1060) -15.6 (11.9,19) +15.4 (10.6,20.6) -MN +OH -11111 +30429 -10300 +28800 -800 (600,1100) +1600 (1200,2000) -865 +1843 -830 (760,900) +1890 (1780,1980) -14.2 (9.9,18.8) +13.8 (9.9,17.5) -WA +TX -13844 +51994 -12900 +48400 -1000 (700,1300) +3600 (3000,4200) -915 +1622 -910 (840,990) +2100 (1960,2260) -12.8 (8.9,16.8) +12.4 (10.4,14.5) -TX +MO -47695 +16043 -44200 +15300 -3500 (3000,4100) +700 (400,1000) -1413 +718 -1880 (1740,2020) +800 (720,880) -12.1 (10.3,14) +12.1 (6.6,17.1) @@ -3541,160 +3541,160 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

TN -17565 +19080 -16800 +18300 800 (400,1100) -314 +348 -350 (250,440) +380 (280,480) -11.7 (6.4,16.8) +11.5 (5.6,16.8) -NM +WI -4281 +14191 -4100 +13500 -200 (0,400) +600 (300,900) -249 +607 -240 (200,280) +580 (510,660) -10.3 (2.3,18.7) +11 (5.6,16.2) -KY +OK -10454 +9493 -10000 +9100 -400 (200,700) +400 (100,600) -384 +328 -370 (300,440) +320 (250,400) -9.9 (4.2,15.5) +9.1 (2.8,15.3) -WI +NV -13017 +6735 -12400 +6500 -600 (300,800) +200 (0,400) -526 +389 -500 (430,580) +400 (350,460) -9.8 (4.7,14.6) +6.8 (-0.5,13.8) -OK +NE -8603 +4241 -8300 +4100 -300 (0,500) +100 (0,300) -286 +153 -290 (210,360) +130 (80,180) -6.5 (0.5,12.1) +6.4 (-2.1,15) -NV +OR -6180 +9030 -6000 +8800 -200 (0,400) +300 (0,500) -356 +183 -370 (320,420) +150 (90,200) -6.1 (-0.8,12.8) +6.1 (0.1,11.5) -OR +NM -8274 +4715 -8000 +4600 -200 (0,500) +100 (-100,300) -172 +303 -150 (100,200) +290 (240,340) -5.4 (0,10.9) +5.5 (-3.2,14.4) @@ -3702,22 +3702,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

IA -7167 +7801 -7000 +7700 -200 (0,400) +100 (-100,400) -432 +529 -380 (320,440) +470 (400,530) -5.4 (-1,12.2) +4.4 (-2.4,11.5) @@ -3725,160 +3725,160 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

UT -4638 +5044 -4500 +4900 100 (-100,300) -86 +109 -80 (40,120) +100 (50,140) -3.6 (-2.2,8.9) +4.2 (-2,9.8) -KS +AR -6149 +7905 -6000 +7800 -100 (-100,300) +100 (-200,300) -211 +123 -190 (130,240) +170 (110,220) -3.5 (-3.3,10.2) +2.9 (-5,10.4) -AR +MT -7273 +2465 -7200 +2400 -100 (-100,300) +0 (-100,100) -103 +21 -160 (100,210) +0 (-30,30) -3.4 (-4.1,10.3) +2.2 (-10.1,13.5) -NE +ID -3878 +3656 -3800 +3600 -100 (-100,200) +0 (-100,200) -146 +77 -120 (70,160) +70 (40,110) -2.9 (-5.3,11.1) +1.7 (-7,10.9) -ID +KS -3364 +6640 -3300 +6600 -0 (-100,200) +0 (-200,200) -73 +222 -70 (40,110) +190 (140,240) -1.5 (-6.5,10.2) +1.5 (-5.5,8.2) -WY +KY -1084 +11382 -1100 +11300 -0 (-100,100) +100 (-200,300) -8 +413 -10 (-10,30) +410 (320,480) -1.2 (-15.6,15.6) +1.5 (-4.9,7.6) -MT +ME -2238 +3749 -2200 +3800 -0 (-100,100) +0 (-200,100) -20 +86 -0 (-30,30) +0 (-60,50) --0.7 (-12.6,9.8) +-1.6 (-12.9,10.5) @@ -3886,45 +3886,45 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

HI -2625 +2821 -2600 +2900 -0 (-100,100) +-100 (-200,100) 15 -10 (-20,40) +0 (-30,40) --1.3 (-10.5,7.8) +-5.2 (-15.5,4.4) -WV +SD -4377 +1961 -4400 +2000 --100 (-200,100) +-100 (-200,0) -80 +52 -60 (10,110) +60 (20,90) --3 (-12.4,6.2) +-7.7 (-21.3,4.7) @@ -3932,68 +3932,68 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

AK -856 +932 -900 +1000 -0 (-100,0) +-100 (-200,0) 9 --10 (-30,10) +-10 (-30,0) --3.3 (-14.4,6.3) +-10.8 (-23,-0.4) -ME +WV -3441 +4446 -3500 +5100 --100 (-200,100) +-600 (-800,-500) -75 +94 -0 (-60,50) +70 (20,120) --3.8 (-14.5,7.9) +-36.2 (-46.7,-26) -SD +WY -1787 +830 -1900 +1200 --100 (-200,0) +-300 (-400,-300) -53 +16 -50 (10,80) +20 (0,40) --8 (-20.8,4.1) +-58.4 (-76.2,-43.5) @@ -4001,22 +4001,22 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

ND -1226 +1350 -1700 +1900 --500 (-600,-400) +-500 (-700,-400) -28 +36 -50 (30,80) +70 (50,100) --66.4 (-79.9,-51.7) +-71.9 (-87.4,-55.9) @@ -4024,35 +4024,39 @@

Summary Table: Excess deaths and reported deaths due to COVID-19

Observed weekly death rate due to any cause vs seasonal baseline (+/-95% Prediction Interval)

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The black line shows the observed proportion of deaths that were due to any cause per week. The red line and shaded area represent the 95% Prediction Interval. The latest data are for the week ending 2020-05-23.

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The black line shows the observed proportion of deaths that were due to any cause per week. The red line and shaded area represent the 95% Prediction Interval. The latest data are for the week ending 2020-05-30.

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Time series of observed and expected prior to March 2020

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This is to demonstrate the fit of the model in the pre-pandemic period. Note: the axes do not extend to 0 because these plots are meant to highlight the fit of the model

Observed weekly death rate due to pneumonia/influenza/covid-19 vs seasonal baseline for pneumonia&influenza (+/-95% Prediction Interval)

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The black line shows the observed proportion of deaths that were due to Pneumonia & Influenza & Covid-19 (P&I&C) per week. The red line and shaded area represent the 95% Prediction Interval. The latest P&I&C data is for the week ending 2020-05-23.

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The black line shows the observed proportion of deaths that were due to Pneumonia & Influenza & Covid-19 (P&I&C) per week. The red line and shaded area represent the 95% Prediction Interval. The latest P&I&C data is for the week ending 2020-05-30.

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Reported number of COVID-19 deaths,compared with the excess deaths due to all causes in each week, by state.

Trends in excess mortality due to all causes (red solid line +/- 95% prediction intervals) or reported deaths due to COVID-19 (blue dotted line) for March 1, 2020 through May 9, 2020. The thick dashed gray line shows the volume of tests performed per 1000 people in that week.

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Same thing, for additional states

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NCHS vs COVIDtracking.com data

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Compare Excess all-cause mortality vs Excess ILI

Here we compare the observed vs expected number of deaths due to all causes in each week compared to the observed vs expected number of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) in each week. we would expect ILI (blue line) to increase earlier than deaths (red line)

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Evaluation of reporting delays with provisional data

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Comparison of excess deaths week 10->Two weeks ago, compared with earlier time period pre-covid

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There were 1.38810^{5} more deaths reported in provisional statistics for 2020 than 2019 since March 1. Adjusting for variations in deaths between the two years, there were 1.3110^{5} more deaths in 2020.

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There were 1.56810^{5} more deaths reported in provisional statistics for 2020 than 2019 since March 1. Adjusting for variations in deaths between the two years, there were 1.4810^{5} more deaths in 2020.

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

@@ -4086,10 +4090,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

AK -0 (-100,0) +-100 (-200,0) --20 (-100,50) +-70 (-160,0) @@ -4100,10 +4104,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

AL -1000 (700,1300) +900 (600,1200) -840 (560,1100) +710 (420,1000) @@ -4114,10 +4118,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

AR -100 (-100,300) +100 (-200,300) -90 (-120,300) +80 (-170,300) @@ -4128,10 +4132,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

AZ -1600 (1300,1900) +1800 (1400,2100) -1200 (880,1510) +1250 (900,1570) @@ -4142,10 +4146,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

CA -6300 (5600,6900) +6800 (6100,7500) -5750 (5080,6350) +6190 (5500,6850) @@ -4156,10 +4160,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

CO -1700 (1500,2000) +1900 (1600,2100) -1610 (1370,1860) +1730 (1450,1980) @@ -4170,10 +4174,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

DC -500 (400,500) +500 (400,600) -430 (330,520) +490 (400,590) @@ -4184,10 +4188,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

DE -600 (500,700) +400 (300,600) -580 (480,680) +440 (320,550) @@ -4198,10 +4202,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

FL -3400 (2800,4000) +3500 (2900,4100) -2740 (2110,3300) +2770 (2140,3370) @@ -4212,10 +4216,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

GA -2500 (2100,2800) +2200 (1800,2600) -2210 (1850,2540) +1960 (1580,2310) @@ -4226,10 +4230,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

HI -0 (-100,100) +-100 (-200,100) --30 (-170,100) +-80 (-230,50) @@ -4240,10 +4244,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

IA -200 (0,400) +100 (-100,400) -180 (-40,390) +150 (-90,380) @@ -4257,7 +4261,7 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

0 (-100,200) -10 (-150,150) +10 (-160,160) @@ -4268,10 +4272,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

IL -6600 (6200,7000) +7500 (7100,7900) -6490 (6070,6880) +7370 (6910,7760) @@ -4282,10 +4286,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

IN -2300 (2000,2600) +2100 (1800,2500) -2310 (1990,2610) +2120 (1780,2440) @@ -4296,10 +4300,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

KS -100 (-100,300) +0 (-200,200) -80 (-120,280) +10 (-200,220) @@ -4310,10 +4314,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

KY -400 (200,700) +100 (-200,300) -350 (90,590) +-40 (-330,220) @@ -4324,10 +4328,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

LA -3200 (2900,3400) +3000 (2700,3300) -2900 (2670,3140) +2680 (2410,2940) @@ -4338,10 +4342,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

MA -7100 (6800,7400) +7400 (7100,7700) -6920 (6600,7210) +7160 (6830,7490) @@ -4352,10 +4356,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

MD -3300 (3000,3600) +3700 (3500,4000) -3260 (2990,3540) +3680 (3380,3960) @@ -4366,10 +4370,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

ME --100 (-200,100) +0 (-200,100) --90 (-250,60) +-70 (-230,90) @@ -4380,10 +4384,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

MI -6200 (5800,6600) +6100 (5700,6600) -6080 (5690,6440) +5950 (5540,6330) @@ -4394,10 +4398,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

MN -800 (600,1100) +900 (600,1200) -740 (460,990) +790 (500,1050) @@ -4408,10 +4412,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

MO -1000 (700,1300) +700 (400,1000) -960 (660,1250) +660 (320,960) @@ -4422,10 +4426,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

MS -1100 (900,1300) +1100 (900,1400) -1060 (830,1260) +1120 (880,1340) @@ -4439,7 +4443,7 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

0 (-100,100) --20 (-140,90) +10 (-120,130) @@ -4450,10 +4454,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

ND --500 (-600,-400) +-500 (-700,-400) --520 (-630,-410) +-560 (-680,-450) @@ -4464,10 +4468,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

NE -100 (-100,200) +100 (0,300) -70 (-90,230) +130 (-40,290) @@ -4481,7 +4485,7 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

300 (100,400) -250 (100,380) +270 (100,400) @@ -4492,10 +4496,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

NJ -15400 (15100,15800) +16200 (15800,16500) -15210 (14880,15540) +15950 (15600,16300) @@ -4506,10 +4510,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

NM -200 (0,400) +100 (-100,300) -160 (-20,320) +50 (-140,220) @@ -4523,7 +4527,7 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

200 (0,400) -170 (-30,370) +200 (-20,410) @@ -4534,10 +4538,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

NY -11800 (11400,12200) +12300 (11900,12700) -11560 (11140,11940) +11990 (11580,12400) @@ -4548,10 +4552,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

NYC -24700 (24400,25000) +25100 (24800,25400) -24600 (24320,24880) +25000 (24700,25280) @@ -4562,10 +4566,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

OH -1800 (1400,2200) +1600 (1200,2000) -1730 (1300,2130) +1520 (1060,1940) @@ -4576,10 +4580,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

OK -300 (0,500) +400 (100,600) -260 (20,480) +370 (110,600) @@ -4590,10 +4594,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

OR -200 (0,500) +300 (0,500) -220 (-20,440) +240 (-10,480) @@ -4604,10 +4608,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

PA -4700 (4200,5100) +5400 (4900,5900) -4720 (4270,5150) +5470 (4980,5910) @@ -4618,10 +4622,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

RI -400 (300,500) +500 (400,700) -430 (310,540) +550 (410,660) @@ -4632,10 +4636,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

SC -1500 (1200,1800) +1400 (1100,1700) -1390 (1100,1640) +1330 (1020,1600) @@ -4649,7 +4653,7 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

-100 (-200,0) --80 (-190,30) +-80 (-200,30) @@ -4663,7 +4667,7 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

800 (400,1100) -500 (150,820) +440 (90,790) @@ -4674,10 +4678,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

TX -3500 (3000,4100) +3600 (3000,4200) -2220 (1660,2750) +2170 (1590,2750) @@ -4691,7 +4695,7 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

100 (-100,300) -90 (-90,260) +100 (-90,280) @@ -4702,10 +4706,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

VA -2300 (2000,2600) +2300 (1900,2600) -2130 (1810,2440) +2070 (1740,2410) @@ -4716,10 +4720,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

VT -200 (100,200) +200 (100,300) -160 (60,240) +190 (80,280) @@ -4730,10 +4734,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

WA -1000 (700,1300) +1300 (1000,1700) -800 (510,1090) +1160 (860,1470) @@ -4744,10 +4748,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

WI -600 (300,800) +600 (300,900) -450 (150,730) +490 (170,790) @@ -4758,10 +4762,10 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

WV --100 (-200,100) +-600 (-800,-500) --40 (-210,120) +-640 (-830,-470) @@ -4772,15 +4776,22 @@

Sensitivity analysis: do not Adjust for flu

WY -0 (-100,100) +-300 (-400,-300) -20 (-70,100) +-330 (-410,-250)
+
+

Empirical baseline

+

+
#> [1] 109490.2
+#> [1] 122335.5
+

+