The results of the time series forecasting are detailed in the PDF report. Summarized results can be found in the .pptx presentation.
Abstract: The automobile industry constitutes to about 23% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuels. The GHG emissions are projected to grow to 50% by 2050 under business as usual scenario. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) remains the most effective measure in curbing the vehicular emissions and possibly mitigating exacerbating effects of climate change. Governments worldwide are setting ambitious goals to phase out fossil fuel powered automobiles. This paper aims to analyze the national targets of EV penetration for three of the major global EV players – China, Japan, and France – using various forecasting models to assess if they can meet their goals or not. This paper finds that State Space Models outperform other time series models for the purpose of long duration forecasting. None of the countries are predicted to meet their EV adoption goals under current policy, regulations, and incentives. However, it should be noted that 5 years of data is used to forecast 5 to 20 years ahead in the future. The short number of historical observations limit the forecasting capability and prevents the use of change-point analysis to incorporate different policy scenarios.
- Ding Dang, Masters of Environmental Management, 2020, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University
- Merle Nye, Bachelors in Public Policy, Computer Science & Environmental Science, 2021, Duke University
- Pierre Mishra, Masters of Environmental Management, 2021, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University
electric vehicles, china, japan, france, greenhouse gas emissions, time series forecasting, autocorrelation function, partial autocorrelation function, model diagnostics, state space, ARIMA, SARIMA, exponential smoothing
The EV sales data was obtained from Changjiang Securities, an investment bank in China. The dataset is not publicly available due to to privacy issues. It was in comma separated value format and comprised of monthly new energy vehicles (NEV) sales in China, France and Japan from 2014 to 2019. The NEV sales included the sales of hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.