This repository contains a simple model used for forecasting cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths in California counties after the omicron wave.
- Case, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death data come from the California Open Data Portal.
- Delays for case reporting are estimated using line lists provided by the Orange County Health Care Agency.
The model is a S-E-I-R-S type model with hospitalization and ICU compartments. It is defined in bayes_seihricud.jl The model is fit with fit_model.jl using Turing.jl.
Priors and posteriors for the model parameters are presented in scalar_generated_quantities_plots.pdf and vector_generated_quantities_plots.pdf.
Forecasts for each county are presented in posterior_predictive_plots.pdf and also available in results_calcat_format.csv, which are incorporated into the California Communicable diseases Assessment Tool.