Statistical Analysis of Voting Barriers: Exploring Political Disparities in Voter Difficulty

Contributors to this project include Maia Kennedy, Ryan Farhat-Sabet, William Seward, and Skylar Wang from the University of California, Berkeley

Background & Context The right to vote is the foundation of American democracy. However many Americans face significant obstacles in exercising this fundamental right. These obstacles range from lack of election information to barriers at polling places.¹ The coronavirus pandemic further exacerbated these barriers.² According to the 2022 American National Election Studies (ANES) Pilot Study, 69% of registered voters reported encountering some form of difficulty while voting.(3) Furthermore, these challenges disproportionately affect certain groups, leading to voter suppression and reduced turnout.^{4 5} Research shows that Democratic and Republican voters often face different voting difficulties. Understanding these differences is critical because voting obstacles can influence voter participation and potentially alter election results.

Methodology and Approach: Our primary analysis uses a Chi-Square test to investigate whether there is a statistically significant association between party affiliation (Democrat vs. Republican) and the experience of voting difficulty. The study’s key steps include:

• Data Preparation: We categories voting difficulty as a binary (experienced difficulty or not), creating a clear variable for the Chi-Square test.
• Chi-Square Test: We applied a Chi-Square test determine whether the distribution of voting difficulties is independent of party affiliation, testing the null hypothesis that there is no association between party affiliation and the likelihood of experiencing difficulty voting.
• Data Visualization: We used visual tools like ggplot2 to present the results, highlighting the disparity in voting difficulties between party affiliations.
• Statistical Significance: The Chi-Square test provided p-values to assess whether the observed differences were statistically significant, supporting the conclusion that Democratic voters were more likely to report voting difficulties than Republicans.

Results and Insights:

• Disparity in Voting Difficulty: The study found that Democratic voters are significantly more likely to report encountering difficulty when voting compared to Republican voters. This difference was found to be statistically significant, suggesting that voting barriers disproportionately affect one party.
• Practical Implications: The findings show a clear discrepancy in the voting experience between the two groups, which could have important implications for voter turnout and election outcomes.

Citations

¹“Executive Order on Promoting Access to Voting.” (2021). https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/03/07/executive-order-on-promoting-access-to-voting/

²Pew Research Center. “3. The voting experience in 2020.” (2020). https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/11/20/the-voting-experience-in-2020/

³69% is the percentage of registered voters based on the ‘reg’ variable that did not mark “vharder_12” or “none of these”, indicating they experienced some form of difficulty (marked at least one difficulty out of variables “vharder_1-11”)

⁴American Progress. “Enhancing Accessibility in U.S. Elections.” (2021). https://www.americanprogress.org/article/enhancing-accessibility-u-s-elections/

⁵Brennan Center. “The Impact of Voter Suppression on Communities of Color.” (2022). https://www.brennance